It’s always nice to write new stories and see history made, so Messi finally winning the WC was great but I want more, the fans want excitement and upsets so when will we get that?
The last new nation to win either was Portugal in Euro 2016 I think, and its definitely the tournament that lends itself to more potential for a brand new winner. But what about the world cup, when will we see a new country win it? is it one of those impossible to tell things as it just happens when it happens?
Euros. For starters it’s next year. It being sooner than the next WC automatically makes it more likely.
But it also seems like underdogs have historically done better in the Euros than the WC.
Yes, the Euro was won by underdogs a few times, the world cup never, even when Uruguay or West Germany won it in 1950 and 1954, they weren’t underdogs, it’s just that the other team they faced was the big favourite and it was a shock
I like your mathematical approach :)
And for the underdogs in Euros: the lowest rated teams in the Euros are normally on a much higher level than the lowest tier in the WC. That makes the group stages more random, always eleminating some of the favourites and it also ensures the favourites more seldom can rotate / rest their key players, so in the later stages the odds are more even oppening for more surprise wins.
By enlarging the Euros they have now somewhat negated that fact, so it is (imo) quite even which finals have the highest chance/risk of having underdogs win. Hence your mathematical “Euros is first” is probarbly the most correct answer 🤣