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      • KSBrian007@alien.topBEnglish
        1·
        1 year ago

        We could have won the title with 5 extra goals if they came at the right time. Goals do win you titles. It’s just typical of good teams to actually have good defences too.

    • Kensei400@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      1 year ago

      Think it’s easier to optimize for a great defense. Scoring is so hard and dependent upon secondary variables that you can’t build a strategy around it. The best way is just to have great attackers and let them loose. Even Pep has admitted to how much his success has been built around having great forwards.

      • Charguizo@alien.topBEnglish
        1·
        1 year ago

        I have read the full article by the way… I think it’s a very good idea but you need to run more numbers imo, and integrate more variables.

        Taking the total of goals scored and total of goals conceded and then generate the expected points on average doesnt seem to predict much. According to that model, Chelsea in 04/05 should have had 74 points. But they didnt, they reached 95 points, breaking the record at the time. Best-ever attack is ManCity (but it’s 106, not 108 like in the article), they were supposed to reach 89 points according to the model, but they reached 100.

        I think what that demonstrates is that there is more than just total of goals to consider if you want to know if attack or defense is more important to win a title.

        Imo the hypothesis that needs to be tested is two-fold (and we would have to define the metrics to test it, but it has to go further than goals scored vs goals conceded):

        - The first condition is that good teams need to play possession football and a certain degree of attacking football, in order to compete at the top of the table.

        - Once the first condition is fulfilled, defense (in a broader sense than just goals conceded: solidity off the ball, pressing, control, etc.) is the difference to win titles.

    • Jx277@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      1 year ago

      I think it has some good points but I’d be wary of taking his result from the regression without question. Linearity may be the way to go but I’d be cautious of it not capturing the issue with stat padding in certain games and not capturing the idea that defences will lead to fewer dropped points (particularly against rivals). Indeed, more I think about it, the more I think linearity may be a poor model. I also feel like using City (who is something of an outlier across the whole PL) may lead to some issues, and the initial opening paragraphs are overly simplistic. Point is, algorithms will always give you an output, doesn’t mean the algorithm is suitable. I’m not disputing the result (I generally don’t put too much stock in any ‘truism’), and think it raises valid points, but wouldn’t say it is a clear slam dunk. I think it may also be worth exploring the points taken to win the league and seeing how that effects things, i.e. if points taken < threshold then better defence is preferable, above then better attack, that kind of thing.