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The prevailing trend in discussing the team assumes that something will happen which will improve the team’s overall attacking output. There’s tension between our position in the table and the team not appearing to have any idea on how to create chances in the current set up. Arsenal still has the 11th best npxG and xG from open play trails behind Everton, Brentford, Brighton, City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Liverpool, Tots, and Villa. Arsenal has scored 13 goals from open play, the same as Wolves and Bournemouth. 38% of the team’s non-penalty goals have from from set pieces, only Luton and Everton are more reliant. Nothing about this attacking output screams title challenger, its mediocre.
Arteta’s discussion yesterday about the game state and opposition strategy is relevant, but I am not sure it offers a complete explanation for the steep drop in output. Open play goals/90 are down to 1 from 1.84 and open play xG/90 is down to 1.25 from 1.68. We are taking improvement for granted, and Arteta deserves some benefit of the doubt here, but I’m curious in what he will do to effectuate what’s needed.
Arteta was quite revealing in that traffic metaphor when he said, as clearly as possible, ‘I want to go 100 miles an hour,’ and then described us as currently unable to get past the roadblocks of opposing sides/
He doesn’t to play slow and endlessly recycle the ball with sterile, peripheral possession; he wants to rip straight through opponents.
The questions, as you say, are how to do that, and why we’re not doing that.
Some of it certainly has to do with facing constant low blocks (the lowest average opposing defensive line in the PL). But that’s not, as you say, simply a matter of opponent strategy.
When we’re moving the ball slowly, and mostly on the outside, not creating central threat, and just nibbling around the edge of the box, that allows opposing teams to organise a low block as conveniently and effectively as possible. They are happy to let us get all the final third and edge box entries we can rack up, as long as we’re doing it slowly and confined to those low-percentage areas.
I think it’s obvious we are playing a way more structured system this season. We have far fewer overlapping runs, and seem to be more focused on managing our longevity over the season than we are in blowing teams away.
At the moment we look efficient to me. It feels like Arteta trying to approach winning from a more controllable angle (dominate possession, concede fewer chances) than it feels like a lack of inventiveness. I’m just a little worried it might affect some of our players’ confidence (Martinelli is quietly having a bad season for example).
Overall I’m not too worried. I just hope leadership knows what they are doing.
https://preview.redd.it/o7ets2ml4c3c1.jpeg?width=1052&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1cd76c877e67f2272f523d86447c0aeaac508771
This is quite stark
https://preview.redd.it/w3dfigmy5c3c1.jpeg?width=1583&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5474d65ec307ec7f10cd9e12235dfdf57a1beb4a
From YouTube - Sky’s Friday Night Football