Original post and methodology: https://www.reddit.com/r/PremierLeague/comments/1880pmp/the_86point_theory/ (warning: long and boring)

Still poking at the numbers, but I wanted to see how some incredibly close and exciting games affected the 86-Point table. Home form still seems to be crucial when you have so few points to play with, but I’m starting to get a little worried that Arsenal has only played one money-maker game this season, and lost it.

City dropping points in three straight (while Liverpool added to their league-leading tally of points taken from losing positions) caused some interesting shifts. Suddenly, Arsenal and Liverpool are most teams’ home draws, with City moving to a “should win.” This gives Newcastle two extra points, as their late loss to Liverpool now looks a little better (and gave Newcastle the only +2 of the week). Manchester United get the opposite effect, with their loss to City even more painful now. I don’t think City will finish third this season, but that’s where they are right now.

Liverpool and Arsenal were the only teams unchanged (both home wins) from Matchweek 13, while lower-table draws away from home continue to undue Aston Villa’s excellent work at home.

Chelsea picked up a good win, but are still behind West Ham, and still a Bottom 11 team (there’s a joke here about them being 10 miles away, but my London geography isn’t great).

May come back after next weekend (MW16), may not. The whole month of December is screwy as to who has played how many, but considering this is based on +/- instead of raw points, it might not be as affected as the real table by games in hand. As always, tell me where I screwed up. Thanks.

Liverpool

• 17 Home Wins: -0- (no dropped points)
• 2 Home Draws: -NA- (haven’t place MC or Arse at home)
• 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -4 (Lut -2, Che -2)
• 8 money-makers: +5 (New +3, BHA +1, MC +1, Tot 0)
  • Games Remaining: 4
• Total: +1 (unchanged)
• Next: at Shef, at CP (potential swing: 0 to -6)

Man City

• 17 Home Wins: -2 (Tot -2)
• 2 Home Draws: -0- (Liv 0)
• 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -5 (Che -2, Wol, -3)
• 8 money-makers: +6 (ManU +3, Arse 0, WHU +3)
  • Games Remaining: 5
• Total: -1 (change: -2)
• Next: at Villa, at Luton (potential swing: +3 to -3)

Newcastle

• 17 Home Wins: 0 (no 17 points dropped)
• 2 Home Draws: +1 (Arse +2, Liv -1)
• 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -5 (Bourn -3, Wol -2)
• 8 money-makers: +1 (WHU +1, BHA 0, MC 0)
  • Games Remaining: 5
• Total: -3 (change: +2)
• Next: at Everton, at Spurs (potential swing: +3 to -3)

Arsenal

• 17 Home Wins: -4 (Tot -2, Ful -2)
• 2 Home Draws: +2 (MC +2)
• 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -2 (Chel -2)
• 8 money-makers: 0 (New 0)
  • Games Remaining: 7
• Total: -4 (unchanged)
• Next: at Luton, at Villa (potential swing: +3 to -3)

Aston Villa

• 17 Home Wins: -0- (no points dropped)
• 2 Home Draws: -NA- (haven’t hosted MC or Arse)
• 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -7 (NFor -3, Wol -2, Bourn -2)
• 8 money-makers: +3 (Spurs +3, Liv 0, New 0)
  • Games Remaining: 5
• Total: -4 (change: -2)
• Next: vs City, vs Arsenal (potential swing: +2 to -4)

Tottenham

• 17 Home Wins: -6 (AV -3, -3 Chel)
• 2 Home Draws: -NA-
• 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -5 (Wol -3, Brent -2)
• 8 money-makers: +2 (Arse +1, MC +1)
  • Games Remaining: 6
• Total: -9 (change: +1\
• Next: vs West Ham, vs Newcastle (potential swing: 0 to -6)

Man United

• 17 Home Wins: -9 (CP -3, BHA -3, MC -3)
• 2 Home Draws: -0- (haven’t played Arse or Liv yet)
• 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -0-
• 8 money-makers: -0- (Tot 0, New 0, Arse 0)
  • Games Remaining: 5
• Total: -9 (change: -2)
• Next: vs Chelsea, vs Bournemouth (potential swing: 0 to -6)