Thanks, Forbes. I feel dumber for having read this. Why would I care what a bunch of illegal gamblers and nonvoting crypto-bros think about the election?
Also in the article.
48%. That’s the odds FiveThirtyEight’s poll-based model gives a Harris win, compared to 52% for Trump. Other poll-based models indicate a closer split than betting markets do, and the Economist’s favors Trump by a 51% to 48% margin.
Polymarket is being manipulated.
https://gizmodo.com/new-research-claims-polymarket-is-full-of-wash-trading-2000518668
Is trump the market favorite because only people with weird gambling addictions care about any of these betting odds, and those folks overlap the trump supporters circle in the venn diagram?
Also because rich people who think burning money on horseshit market manipulation is a good “investment”.
This was my first thought too, so I was curious if there were any stats correlating gambling and political affiliation. From a brief look, I found sports betting seemed to not correlate to party affiliation. [Source]
I’m not sure if you can extrapolate that election betting wouldn’t either.
Trump is the market favorite because some rich dipshit was ballot stuffing. Ignore the market betting.
It feels very weird that you can gamble on election results.
Like, casinos have deep pockets, lobbyists, and are in bed with politicians. It feels like it would be easier for them to influence an election than, say, sporting events.
Not to mention that providing odds for the election results is also something of an endorsement for who they perceive to be a favourable party.
Most of these bettors are ppl who want to makeoney in the worst case scenario. Like well if trump wins at least I’ve got 500 in my pocket
Maybe I should bet on Trump for this reason
If you don’t know how betting odds or polymarket work this information may seem interesting.
Question. Considering Trump is not going to win the popular vote… couldn’t you just arbitrage these odds. Kamala +145 to 170 (depending on the day) Republican win president, Democrat win popular vote +225 to 240?
