probably the governor election if we’re being honest.

Of course THQ relaunched RIGHT after i post this and got all their data updated, of course.

Raw map still holds for polling averages, but their main page betting odds swap Nevada and North Carolina. (Which is slightly better for Trump)

Mostly what I’ve heard, though 538 tends to scew slightly blue overall (a half a point off in 2018, obviously off in 2016 and 2020. Favored them in 2022 though), RCP the opposite, and The Hill RRQ is one of the most neutral options. (Albeit they don’t update as often as I wish they did so they aren’t as good moment to moment).

Georgia is the only state they all agree going red so yeah. The Hill and RCP have straight up never put it blue, 538 did for one day about a week and a half ago by 0.2 and then undid it the next day (just poll drop timing).

I do find it interesting that despite the usual narrative and older polls, North Carolina is very widely being put to the left of Georgia in many recent polls. I also find it interesting that according to this, it might be less red than somewhere like Nevada(which is very odd indeed as North Carolina went red both times for Trump and Nevada went blue both times).

Personally doubt any of them are swinging this year. Virginia will be the tightest on the left list and Iowa on the right list.

Still got the 5th most votes of any presidential candidate ever. (1st is Biden 2020 and 2nd is Trump 2020, 3rd is 08 Obama, 4th is 2012 Obama)

Also that second to last point isn’t 100%, but there’s a lot of rumor and evidence to suggest the plan at the end of Clinton’s term was to bring in Gore, and then either when he lost or ran out his terms JFK Jr. was to be the next guy in line. Him dying and Al Gore losing put them in a tough spot in 2004.

I will note the idea Harris was picked at the 2020 primaries is bunk, people don’t vote on a President/VP ticket then(though that would be an interesting system). Harris was picked by Biden, and while she was on the 2020 ticket in the national election it’s impossible to say how many people she swayed.

I don’t think she’s perfect, but unlike Hillary at least Harris was picked by circumstance, even if unfortunate circumstance, not appointed years in advance like Hillary was. (Hillary had been intending to go for it after she gained some political experience and Bill’s scandal faded. Al Gore was supposed to carry the democrats, but that didn’t work out, and JFK Jr who was being courted for a 2004 run died in a plane crash in 1999, so they had to work with John Kerry which didn’t go well. Then Hillary was ready and initially had party favor, but Obama came in like a locomotive without brakes: All the DNC’s horses and all the RNCs men couldn’t stop Obama in 08, no my friend)

Before anyone starts getting a bit too high off their own supply Harris’s polling averages peaked on August 12th. They were stagnant or declining on the 13th and 14th, briefly spiked on the 15th, and that spike was completely undone on the 16th. Today is dropping again. Not big drops, like 1/10th of a point every other day(which day depends on which conglomerates you use), but the growth trend is over.

(Russian Region including both Kursk and Belgorod)

Nah it’s just pushed back

Also the Ohio thing makes sense when you look at the Senate map. There are exactly two remotely competitive races, Montana and Ohio. Ohio is leaning blue and Montana is leaning red. Picking JD boosts Ohio and Trump is campaigning in Montana right now. Those choices were both made when Biden was still in so seemingly the idea was to secure the Senate and grab an extra seat or two so it’s not razor tight and vulnerable to RINOs.

Those are literally the two safest spots they have. Nevada is swinging blue in the newest polling. Georgia and North Carolina are holding firm. Also the third party situation in Georgia does not favor Harris very well given how much West and Oliver are pouring in focus there

Yeah, so I used a site that scews slightly Republican to counter that. Honestly Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania vary depending on the site in general. But it’s fairly solid at the moment that Michigan and Wisconsin is blue and Georgia and North Carolina is red.

Nebraska changing it’s laws to WTA would alter a couple of scenarios, turning narrow losses into ties or ties into narrow wins. Most of these scenarios aren’t very likely(two involve Maine state flipping and one involves Trump doing really well in the Rust Belt and flopping in the South which would be absurd), but the 'Trump sweeps the South and South-West and Harris dominates the Rust Belt" scenario is currently THE most likely on polls, more likely than a safe Trump win by yoinking PA or WI or a safe Harris win yoinking Nevada or Georgia. And that’s a tie if Nebraska changes the laws, which puts it to the House…except each State gets one vote and the reps just have to work together to pick that vote. So even in a Blue House they’d be likely voting Red.

What would you put the odds of-

1. Nebraska changing the laws before the election.
2. Maine being unable to gather support and pass laws to change their own system in response in time(Nebraska’s been trying since March, if Nebraska passed it in September or October would Maine rally in time? It may only be one point +R one point -D, but that single point matters if every state voted exactly as it’s polled right now on the most centrist polling sites.

Haley was not a loyalist at all and I only think she endorsed at all because of the pressure during that brief window of time (Biden was flailing, polls were crashing, Trump got shot). Had she held out a bit til Harris joined in that never would have happened.

Also money is a huge issue for the Trump Campaign now and even moreso with Harris rolling in the dough. There were two options with rich tech connections, Burgum and Vance.

I just heard her speak for the first time today.

Better than Joe, but I don’t think she’s Obama tier. That man was king of the mic.

In hindsight I actually don’t think it was AS big a mistake as it seemed initially. Picking a woman, a black guy, or an Indian would have been completely undone and rendered useless against Harris. Picking anyone over the age of 60-65 would be a horrible mistake with Biden out. That doesn’t exactly leave a long short list. Vance is super young, he’s a veteran, he’s got some low level mid-western appeal and rural appeal, and he inflames the base to prevent a 2022 scenario. Not great, but probably better than what Nikki would have done especially since Vance brings in Pettuh-Thile’s bucks. People like Swanny or Nikki would have weakened the base and the gains would be erased by Harris.

Burgum had a lot of the same strengths and especially better poker face, also ties to the tech bros, but he’s too old. I’m not sure if he was better or worse, but solid Top 3 out of the options they had. Youngkin would have been the dangerous pick electorally. He forces the Dems to fight in Virginia and has a lot of the ‘moderate swing white guy’ appeal Pence did. He’s also got Young in his first name which I’m sure could be used wonderfully in some posters. Not as much money and probably not as much of a loyalist though.

That and Shapiro has a small graveyard in his closet worth of skeletons.

Can I say that now without getting dogpilled? The investigation into that 20 stabbing suicide just got reopened

Tomorrow is the last day in that ‘10 day’ countdown before Trump is permanently stuck with Vance. You guys think an ousting attempt will happen or…