Whatever you want to say about reality, the poll from a couple of days ago pointing out how deeply unhappy young adults are makes this a pretty questionable way of trying to engage that demographic.
I dunno. This demographic also suffered a lot from the pandemic. It seems like a lifetime ago, but the first lockdowns started almost exactly 4 years ago. I would think that reminding them will be beneficial.
It’s a pretty bad tactic because while it may let you take credit for improving some people’s lives, you’re also giving tacit permission for those worse off to blame you for it. This only works if the majority of people are better off than they were four years ago and recognize that they are. That’s probably not a safe assumption when we’ve got record inflation and dipped close to, if not into, a recession. Just think of all the mass layoffs you heard about over the past four years.
I think most people are a little better off. They just don’t feel like it, because most people still aren’t doing “well.” I.e. things aren’t getting better fast enough. I looked at real-wage statistics a while back, and that seemed to confirm my beliefs (real wages have been improving across all four quantiles). I have not looked at those living on SSI, SSD, or retirement; and I imagine those people could be worse off.
The current job market is still very tight, unemployment is still very low (despite the Fed). Recent mass layoffs have mostly just been in tech and some white collar jobs, which is a small fraction of the workforce/electorate. The majority of people work “unskilled” jobs and those are still easy to get, and pay a little more in real wages now.
None of this really matters to the electorate though. I’m convinced elections are all vibes-based. And vibes are largely controlled by the media and algorithms. I’ve recently talked to a few people that want Trump to win, and they still parotted the line, “Trump is a business man, so he knows how to get the economy back on track.” They also liked the checks they got during the lockdown. They don’t really follow the news or politics, so all the information they get is incidental. One person recently started to get into red-pill content (Fresh + Fit, Andrew Tate, Jordan Peterson, etc), who I think also discuss political issues in a vibes-based way.
The problem is that while wages have been beating inflation this year, they aren’t beating the last few years. Despite breathless headlines proclaiming so from left leaning sources.
It appears earnings have been beating inflation since 2014 (with some noise, and a big temporary spike during covid lockdowns). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Really? Because everyone else disagrees. I wonder what numbers magic they used to make that particular line go up.
Oh look. Reagan redefined CPI and we’ve been getting gaslighted for decades.
But also the median household tells a different story. Just tracking wage doesn’t tell the whole economic story unless you want to believe every American Human is working a wage job. I do admit it’s my fault for using the word wages. But there’s a reason we track median household and not actual wages to get a general look at the health of the Economy.
Good thing they changed the definition of a recession, so we definitely aren’t in one lol. 😒
The definition of recession didn’t changed. You didn’t know how it was defined, and you thought the layman rule of thumb definition was the official definition. When you learned how it’s really defined…did you say “wow, great I learned something new today.”?
No you said “it’s those pesky experts that are wrong!”
Not a big fan of history?
History? Not particularly a big fan. But not sure why that matters. I just pay attention and there was plenty of discussion in 2008 about how they define recession and depression because there was a lot of talk how we would know we were in the latter.
I guess youre not a big fan of learning?
Paywalled, so I can’t read it. And I can’t get to via webarchive. You’re hiding your evidence, probably because you realize you are wrong.
But let’s see if you’re a learning guy.*
From an IMF paper in 2009:
*lol we both know you won’t learn.
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No. No I am not.
My food is more expensive. The house I want to buy is further out of reach. My medical care is more expensive and more restricted.
The southern border crisis still rages on.
The difference is my country is now complicit if not instrumental in a genocide and is in more military conflicts globally.
Obvious next question: do you believe any of that would change for the better under trump?
I think Trump is human garbage.
Like Biden.
If you vote for human garbage, you get human garbage.
I dont vote for human garbage.
The 2 party system is embarrassingly stupid.
We need to force an alternative.
Don’t have time for that before November.
So start working on November +4 years.
No u
Every single one of those things was catalyzed because of something Trump did.
Handling of COVID. Flooring of interest rates. Tax breaks for the middle class that expired right as terms rolled over and Congress was controlled by morons who wouldn’t renew them (rich still get theirs). Nerfed the ACA’s tax penalty instead of raising subsidies. Moving the fucking embassy to Jerusalem.
Biden sure ain’t great but he can be swayed by public opinion to some degree. Trump will fucking end us if he comes back.
“Hur dur. I wet my pampers at the thought of Trump”.
Rightwingers aren’t people.
I agree, which is why I am extremely terrified of the current Right wing Democrat president.
Hilariously, nearly everyone ready to defend you just downvoted you here. That says something. I’m not sure what, but something.
That its a stupid poorly thought out inflammatory response.
I am just too stripped out on the same cordial “lesser evil” conversation that is going nowhere to care.
I am pissing people off. Good.
Trump will be incredibly bad. What is worse is losing a liberal political presence in this country entirely. And we are about there.
Just because Trump risks being the worst thing to happen to democracy in the history of humanity, we cannot excuse genocide.
The funding of the genocide and blocking of UN attempts to address it are real. Trump’s demolition of democracy is, as of now, merely a risk.
Trump’s demolition of democracy is, as of now, merely a risk.
Yeah, a risk because he might not win the election, despite how much you’re trying to get him elected. It will also be MUCH worse for palestine under trump.
It will also be MUCH worse for palestine under trump.
Genocide is genocide. The Palestinian people get eradicated by both Biden and Trump. There is no “worse” genocide.
Genocide is genocide
Too bad that’s not the only thing that matters
There is no “worse” genocide.
Really? This is a really stupid take. Some genocides are in fact worse than others.
The Palestinian people get eradicated by both Biden and Trump.
Even if this were the case, which it’s not because trump would assist FAR more and it would be much worse. But even if it were the case, with trump we ALSO get regressive LGBT laws in the US as well as who knows what else, possibly more supreme court appointments. And 1 of these 2 people WILL be president next year. You don’t get to pretend you’re making some noble choice by allowing the far worse option to win.
Proponents of genocide, people who think the extermination of some races is ok as long as it isn’t theirs, don’t deserve an opinion and a platform.
Shame on you.
I think you need to work on your reading comprehension
I think you need to work on your entire brain.
The ironic thing is that anyone really paying attention would know that almost all the negative things about 2024 are due to long term impacts of the trump administration.
For all you inflation heads out there…
US M0 money supply was $3.6T in January 2017 when Trump took office.
It was $5.25T in Jan 2021 when he left office, a 45% increase in the money supply.
As of December 2023 it was $5.83T, an 11% increase under Biden.
So if we’re saying increased money supply caused inflation, the Trump admin is about 4x more responsible for it than the Biden admin.
I don’t think I’ve seen anyone saying he caused inflation. Just that he’s trying to tell everyone he won the economy and everything is back to normal. There are multiple articles now with his allies and staffers wondering why the people aren’t on board with that message.
I don’t think I’ve seen anyone saying he caused inflation.
Literally every republican says this
Well there’s your problem. Stop listening to them.
…
This only makes sense if you’re completely out of touch with the average American…
Speaking of that, remember when that streaming company Quibi tried to be a thing only on cellphones and mostly in portrait mode?
The guy who came up with that is now one of the people running Biden’s campaign.
Dudes great at raising money, but when you start letting him do anything else, everything goes to shit
The “Quibi guy” is Jeffrey Katzenberg.
AKA, the financial brain behind Dreamworks and the chair of Disney during some pretty solid years. He’s a money guy.
There are 8 people on that campaign board, and he ain’t there to figure out messages, districts, or any of that. He’s there for fundraising.
Quibi wasn’t famous because it was a silly idea, it was famous because it was a silly idea that Katzenberg raised an ungodly amount of capital for … almost $2 billion. Homie ain’t the ideas guy. Quibi very much confirmed that he’s no Spielberg or Geffen (the creative cofounders for Dreamworks.) But fuck if he isn’t one of the best fundraisers in the business.
Biden’s campaign has had double Trump’s cash on hand.
He’s a money guy.
I said he’s good at that…
But that’s not all he’s doing
It’s like you read my comment, ignored what it said, and repeated it back…
Biden’s campaign has had double Trump’s cash on hand.
And it cost Biden twice per vote what it cost trump in 2016… Biden’s the first president in the history of the US to spend 1 billion on a campaign, and he was 30k close to losing.
And Biden’s polling is worse now
Either we need a lot more money, or we can stop running geriatric candidates no one wants to be president
I guess my main point is that his campaign board has a pile of people. It looks like they’re actually up to a dozen or so. This guy is not the manager, deputy manager, strategist, etc. He’s a “co-chair,” which is the title given to everyone who isn’t driving the campaign. The campaign is being driven by former Biden, Obama, and Warnock folks.
You’re alluding to “Quibi bad = Biden campaign bad,” but that’s kind of a silly argument.
No man no one even knows what the fuck Quibi is. Hell I’m just assuming it’s a real thing, I’m taking your word for it because I don’t care enough to look it up. The tent pole of your argument here is based on something no one has ever heard of.
Really?
I’m used to Biden supporters not knowing basic shit, but this one surprises me…
4 years ago was bodies in trailers, man. Stores were rationing toilet paper, nurses were resorting to dressing up in trash bags, and essential workers were rolling the dice on whether their shitty job was going to kill them. Millions of people lost loved ones and there are a couple hundred thousand COVID orphans. Trump was a big part of why the pandemic was as bad as it was. I agree things aren’t awesome, but this is an easy question to answer.
Minimizing how bad 2020 was only makes sense if you’re completely out of touch with the average American and driven to one repeated conclusion whenever Biden is brought up.
Soooo, are we expecting that to happen again? Because that’s a pretty loaded answer to people who just want to be able to pay rent.
What is this faux populism when poor people were the ones risking their lives for shitty jobs and disproportionately dying?
And yeah, we should expect that pandemics will continue to happen. COVID itself is still mutating and a pandemic kicking off wasn’t a surprise. More people living closer together encroaching on nature and traveling more often is the breeding ground for pandemics. Disease safety is not just an economic issue, but a social justice issue. Obama set up a monitoring organization after Ebola and Bird Flu showed worrisome spread but were thankfully contained. SARS was just one of the diseases they were tracking. Trump dismantled it because conservatives are incapable of good governance, and that has deadly consequences for the people at the bottom of the ladder.
And it also fucks up the economy if that’s literally the only thing you think matters.
It was on Reddit telling “essential workers” to quit if they could. To never keep doing something if people start calling an entire group of workers “heroes”. They’re absolving themselves of taking care of you. The plaque to your memory will be very pretty.
And no, you don’t go through day to day planning on another pandemic. Unless you’re a prepper or FEMA. To bring it up here as the basis of an economic question is incredibly bad faith. The fact is stuff was more affordable when Trump was president. Did that have anything to do with Trump? No. Do most Americans understand that? No. So should Biden campaign on an economic improvement most people are only starting to to see? Lol no way. He should be telling people he’s in the trenches with them. He should be breaking apart Kroger, not Apple.
Nope. Going on 14 years with no increase in federal minimum wage, with continuous price inflation. No access to health insurance thanks to an oversight in the Affordable Care Act that has left millions of Americans like me to be deemed too poor to receive financial help, that he promised to address during his term. He has not mentioned it since elected. For some insane reason US emissions standards have a loophole that has led to increasingly large and more polluting vehicles on the roads, with much higher pedestrian deaths. Meanwhile his single largest piece of legislation is spending hundreds of billions on more car infrastructure, so climate change will be accelerating. Housing has gotten more and more expensive as real estate corporations keep buying everything up completely unopposed by him. And all of this is just stuff that directly impacts me. That’s not addressing the union neutering he’s done, the personally bypassing congress to give Israel more weapons to kill Palestinians, the horrendous performance of his DoJ that still doesnt have Trump in court for the crimes he committed 4 years ago.
I really don’t understand in what ways I’m supposed to be better off now.
