538 Forecast for 2024 Presidential Election - 270toWin
www.270towin.com
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.

An interactive and visual illustration showing how either candidate can win the Electoral College.

  • Coffee Addict@lemmy.worldOPMEnglish
    1·
    2 months ago

    With the US 2024 Presidential Election between sitting President Joseph R. Biden presumptive democrat nominee and sitting Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J Trump coming up on November 5th, I figured I would feature this interactive map, which uses 538’s data. It provides a visual way to illustrate how either candidate can win the Electoral College.

    Edit: Sitting President Joe Biden suspended his candidacy as of July 19th, 2024. He will speak more about his reasons later this week, and he has endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris, to succeed him.

    538 still shows Biden as the democrats presumptive nominee, but I expect that will change soon.

    Edit 2: This election map still works, but as of July 21 at 2 p.m. Eastern, President Joe Biden has suspended his campaign for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination for president. 538 will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced.

  • Coffee Addict@lemmy.worldOPMEnglish
    151·
    4 months ago

    Also, I personally feel the Electoral College is archaic and was built upon the principal of inequality. It is also the only reason George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump even got elected in the first place; neither had the popular vote.

    I could write an entire essay on how the US and the world would be better off without the Electoral College, but I would just be preaching to the choir and probably nobody would bother reading it (lol.)

  • ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.worldEnglish
    2·
    2 months ago

    Nebraska changing it’s laws to WTA would alter a couple of scenarios, turning narrow losses into ties or ties into narrow wins. Most of these scenarios aren’t very likely(two involve Maine state flipping and one involves Trump doing really well in the Rust Belt and flopping in the South which would be absurd), but the 'Trump sweeps the South and South-West and Harris dominates the Rust Belt" scenario is currently THE most likely on polls, more likely than a safe Trump win by yoinking PA or WI or a safe Harris win yoinking Nevada or Georgia. And that’s a tie if Nebraska changes the laws, which puts it to the House…except each State gets one vote and the reps just have to work together to pick that vote. So even in a Blue House they’d be likely voting Red.

    What would you put the odds of-

    1. Nebraska changing the laws before the election.
    2. Maine being unable to gather support and pass laws to change their own system in response in time(Nebraska’s been trying since March, if Nebraska passed it in September or October would Maine rally in time? It may only be one point +R one point -D, but that single point matters if every state voted exactly as it’s polled right now on the most centrist polling sites.